Dominant-currency pricing and the global output spillovers from US dollar appreciation

Currency spillovers and tri-polarity: a simultaneous model of the US dollar, German mark and Japanese yen5

This paper presents a simultaneous model of exchange rates between the US dollar, German mark and Japanese yen. In addition to incorporating long-run equilibria and short-run dynamics, the model is designed to capture complex interaction between currencies not normally considered in exchange rate models. The model is demonstrated to be an economically and statistically superior forecasting tool...

Currency Spillovers and Tri-polarity: a Simultaneous Model of the Us Dollar, German Mark and Japanese Yen

This paper presents a simultaneous model of exchange rates between the three major countries. In addition to incorporating long-run equilibria and short-run dynamics, the model is designed to capture complex interactions between currencies not normally considered in exchange rate models. These interactions are shown to be important via generalised impulse response analysis, and the model as a w...

US Dollar Appreciation and the Spread of Pierce’s Disease: Effects on the World Wine Market

Output Spillovers from Fiscal Policy

In this paper, we estimate the cross-country spillover effects of government purchases on output for a large number of OECD countries. Following the methodology in Auerbach and Gorodnichenko (2012a, b), we allow these multipliers to vary smoothly according to the state of the economy and use real-time forecast data to purge policy innovations of their predictable components. We also consider th...

Identifying Agglomeration Spillovers: Evidence from Million Dollar Plants*

We quantify agglomeration spillovers by estimating the impact of the opening of a large new manufacturing plant on the total factor productivity (TFP) of incumbent plants in the same county. Articles in the corporate real estate journal Site Selection reveal the county where the “Million Dollar Plant” ultimately chose to locate (the “winning county”), as well as the one or two runner-up countie...